FOMC声明文、第1四半期の経済成長の減速は一時的

投稿日:2017年5月4日 カテゴリー:FRB・FOMC, 重要イベント・発言まとめ

2017年5月3日、FRB(米連邦準備理事会)がFOMC(米連邦公開市場委員会)の声明文を発表しました。市場の予想通り、フェデラルファンドレートの目標範囲は0.75%-1.00%と据え置きとなりましたが、声明文の内容は利上げに楽観的なものとなり、予定通り6月に利上げされるであろうという見方が強まりました。金利先物市場は利上げを78.5%織り込んでいる状況です。


出典:http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

声明文の内容

2017年5月の声明文と2017年3月の声明文を比較してみます。
追記されたものを赤字、変更されなかった重要な表現を黄色の蛍光線で表現しています。

第一段落
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains were remained solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined was little changed in recent months. Household spending rose only modestly, but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid has continued to rise moderately while. Bbusiness fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation measured on a 12-month basis recently has been running has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective.; Eexcluding energy and food prices, consumer prices declined in March and inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

軽微な修正がなされていますが、基本的には足許の指標が弱くとも、考え方は変わっていないというスタンスが見えます。主な文言は下記のとおりです。
・経済活動の成長が鈍化しても、労働市場は引き続き強まっている。
・過去数ヶ月平均すると、雇用の伸びは堅調であり、失業率は低下した。
・家計支出は緩やかな伸びに留まったが、今後の消費拡大を支えるファンダメンタルズは堅調。
・設備投資は堅調だった。
・直近12ヶ月ベースのインフレ率は2%に近づいているものの、消費者物価は3月に下落した。

第二段落
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

「第1四半期の経済成長の減速は、一時的なものと見ている。」という文言が追加されています。今回の声明文でもっとも印象的な文言と言えると思います。

第三段落
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain raise the target range for the federal funds rate at to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

「金融政策の立場は引き続き緩和的である。」という文言は修正されず、そのまま残っています。

第四段落
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

第四段落は変更ありません。

第五段落
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

「保有者からの元本支払いの再投資に関する既存の方針を維持」という文言も変更なしです。つまり、FRBのバランスシート縮小に関する議論についてのアップデートはなしでした。

第六段落
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

会合の決定は全会一致でなされました。

出典:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170503a.htm

声明文をうけて

2016年は年4回の利上げを見据えながら、結局は1回の利上げにとどまりました。年初には今年もFRBが想定しているペースで利上げできないのではという見方が市場関係者にはありましたが、今回の声明文に関しては、FRBの強い姿勢が見て取れると思います。


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